Monday, August 14, 2017

White Nationalists Generate an Activist Response from the Left: Antifa

Peter Beinart produced an unusually timely article for The Atlantic: The Rise of the Violent Left.  It was written before what has been called “The Battle of Charlottesville,” but it arrived in the mailbox just as events there were unfolding.  In it, he introduces a growing movement that goes by the name Antifa, which is a shortening of some version of a label consisting of the term anti-fascism.

There were anti-fascist groups active in Europe in the 1920s and 1930s as fascism became popular.  Anti-fascist activism came to the fore again when neo-Nazi movements sprouted in Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall.  Various other objectionable groups have appeared throughout Europe over the years and kept the antifa groups active.  It was inevitable with the candidacy and the presidency of Donald Trump that neo-Nazi and white supremacy groups would become more visible.  The equally inevitable response was that European-style activism would spread to the United States.  Beinart suggests that several widely reported events tinged with violence have already occurred and are likely associated with this movement.

“On Inauguration Day, a masked activist punched the white-supremacist leader Richard Spencer. In February, protesters violently disrupted UC Berkeley’s plans to host a speech by Milo Yiannopoulos, a former Breitbart.com editor. In March, protesters pushed and shoved the controversial conservative political scientist Charles Murray when he spoke at Middlebury College, in Vermont.”

“The movement’s secrecy makes definitively cataloging its activities difficult, but this much is certain: Antifa’s power is growing. And how the rest of the activist left responds will help define its moral character in the Trump age.”

White nationalists have long resorted to violence.  The events in Charlottesville indicate there is no reason to expect that tendency to disappear.  There is also widespread concern among liberals that Donald Trump is an existential threat to our polity.

“For progressives, Donald Trump is not just another Republican president. Seventy-six percent of Democrats, according to a Suffolk poll from last September, consider him a racist. Last March, according to a YouGov survey, 71 percent of Democrats agreed that his campaign contained ‘fascist undertones’.”

So this is the question that progressives must ask themselves.

“….If you believe the president of the United States is leading a racist, fascist movement that threatens the rights, if not the lives, of vulnerable minorities, how far are you willing to go to stop it?”

The official position of the Democratic politicians is that the right to assembly and to express noxious opinions is sacrosanct.  They will counter Trump as best they can and plan for regaining control of government in future elections.  Is playing by the rules going to be enough?  The antifa crowd thinks not.

The purpose of antifa is to prevent the white nationalists from even having a forum to express their opinions and they are willing to use violence to make that happen.  Can this possibly work as a long-term strategy?

Beinart fears that the antifa activists will be counterproductive and encourage the growth of the very groups they are contending against.

“Antifa’s perceived legitimacy is inversely correlated with the government’s. Which is why, in the Trump era, the movement is growing like never before. As the president derides and subverts liberal-democratic norms, progressives face a choice. They can recommit to the rules of fair play, and try to limit the president’s corrosive effect, though they will often fail. Or they can, in revulsion or fear or righteous rage, try to deny racists and Trump supporters their political rights. From Middlebury to Berkeley to Portland, the latter approach is on the rise, especially among young people.”

“Revulsion, fear, and rage are understandable. But one thing is clear. The people preventing Republicans from safely assembling on the streets of Portland may consider themselves fierce opponents of the authoritarianism growing on the American right. In truth, however, they are its unlikeliest allies.”

Mark Bray is a visiting historian at Dartmouth College.  He has studied anarchy and anarchical movements in the past, a label that is probably appropriate for the antifa activists.  Bray has a book titled Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook coming out soon.  He seems somewhat sympathetic with need for activism and provides a perspective worth considering.  The following quotes are from Bray in an interview with Brooke Gladstone on WNYC (February 10, 2017).

When asked about the intention to prevent fascists from speaking, Bray replied:

“So, in your open you mentioned the popular slogan that liberals have adopted from Voltaire that, ‘I may disagree with what you have to say but I will defend to the death your right to say it.’ Anti-fascists fundamentally disagree with that premise. They argue that, given the horrors of Auschwitz and Treblinka, the destruction that Nazis have caused, that fascists, white supremacists shouldn’t be granted the right to express their ideas in public, in part because, they argue, had that been done earlier in the 1920s, the 1930s, we might have been able to bypass what ended up happening.”

Is that restriction of a fundamental right consistent with a free society?

“Germany has a prohibition against advocating for Nazis publicly. That doesn’t mean that Germany is a closed society where people can’t say whatever they want to say. You can have some prohibitions against speech without going all the way. In the context of an increasing number of hate crimes — the Southern Poverty Law Center cited over 800 such crimes immediately following the election of President Trump — the idea is that the people who carry out these crimes are listening to Richard Spencer speeches, going on Stormfront websites, imbibing this hateful doctrine, and that, to the degree that we can shut it down, we will have fewer people copy-catting them into attacking vulnerable populations.”

Most people would agree that it was acceptable in the 1930s and 1940s to organize armed resistance to the Nazi regime. The question is: how terrible does it have to be before that becomes legitimate? And the anti-fascist answer is: you need to nip it in the bud from the beginning.

People don’t mind limiting the free speech of leftists, why not apply the same rules to extremists on the right?

“The liberal ideal is that the government is a referee in a game that all parties are invited to play. But, in actual fact, whenever left groups have become threatening, you get Red Scares, you get repression, you get COINTELPRO in the 1960s and 70s. And so, anti-fascists are arguing that we want a political content to how we look at speech and society which is drastically different from a liberal take, and that this entails shutting down the extreme manifestations of fascism and neo-Nazism.”

How does antifa operate?

“Under that specific banner, it is still relatively new and it’s finding its way. But a lot of anti-fascist or Antifa groups have formed in different cities around the United States. A lot of what they do is researching information on local white supremacists, who they are, where they live, where they work—sometimes pressuring their employers to get them fired, sometimes making sure that if they organize private events at local venues for white supremacists, they try to pressure the venue owner to try to cancel the event. So, that research and coalition-building with groups that are affected by various forms of fascist or white supremacist violence is a lot of what’s done. What gets more of the headlines is when the demonstrations come out onto the street. And so, as I’m sure you and a number of listeners are well aware, there have been high-profile incidences recently, such as in Berkeley, of trying to physically shut down events, that has raised the profile of antifascism.”

Can this be a viable strategy?

“The question is: if we want to prevent something along the lines of what happened in the 1930s and 40s from happening again, how do we do it? And the liberal prescription for doing it is, essentially, free and open debate and dialogue, and if Nazis do something illegal then hopefully the police will stop them. Antifascists recognize that in the 1930s, 1940s, the police supported fascism. The fascists didn’t actually stage a revolution to come to power; they worked within the political system. And all the reasonable dialogue and debate that one could muster did not do the job. The argument is that, if we want such a horrific crime to not reoccur, it needs to be nipped in the bud, through a variety of tactics, but one of which is through violently disrupting Klan rallies, neo-Nazi speeches, and so forth.”

Bray provides this insight into the long-term goals of the antifa activists.

“The other thing to remember is that anti-fascists identify as communists, as anarchists, as socialists, and want to organize for a revolutionary rupture with the prevailing political system, and that this is in-line with that. That’s also another reason why the two philosophies don’t quite jibe.”

That last revelation by Bray, if correct, indicates that antifa activists are not a bunch of angry Democrats, they are something else entirely—something the Democrats have little control over.  On the Republican side of the ledger, that party is dominated by a president who considers their politicians his personal servants who are to do as they’re told.  They own the government but have little control over it—or at least they have not yet chosen to exercise much control over their president.

If both the white nationalists and the antifa activists are propagating objectionable viewpoints and both are willing to resort to violence, can the future hold anything but escalation.  The extremists on the right would seem to have much more firepower when it comes to violence.  There are already moves afoot to call upon armed right-wing militia groups to provide protection instead of depending on police.  That cannot end well.

Perhaps the thing that needs to be nipped in the bud is the Trump presidency.  Perhaps the sight of armed battles occurring on our city streets might awaken Republican politicians from their reveries of massive tax cuts and arouse them sufficiently to finally do the honorable thing and send their president to history’s junkyard.  When white nationalist demonstrators are shouting “Heil Trump,” something has to happen.

We are certainly living in interesting times.


The interested reader might find the following articles informative:





Friday, August 11, 2017

Inequality, Race, and Political Polarization

Keith Payne is a professor of psychology at the University of North Carolina whose specialty is the psychology of inequality and discrimination.  He has produced an interesting and enlightening book titled The Broken Ladder: How Inequality Affects the Way We Think, Live, and Die.

Payne argues from psychological and anthropological studies that humans are wired in such a way that they are constantly monitoring their surroundings and interactions with others in order to ascertain whether or not they are maintaining their status level.  He also argues that objective indicators of status, such as wealth, educational achievement, and job title, are often less important than subjective feelings of status as experienced by each individual.  Rather, presumed status seems to depend on how we compare ourselves to those we choose as peers.

Payne asks us to consider levels of status as rungs on a ladder.

“It is true that, on average, people with higher incomes, more education, and more prestigious jobs do rate themselves higher on the ladder.  But the effect is relatively small.  In a sample of, say, a thousand people, some will rate themselves at the top, others will rate themselves at the bottom, and many will be in between.  But only about 20 percent of their self-evaluation is based on income, education, and job status.”

Poor persons can feel comfortable with their status if their peers, to whom they compare themselves, are in similar situations.  On the other hand, a mere millionaire who lives in a world of multimillionaires can experience the stress normally associated with poverty.  That is an important concept to grasp.

“….inequality is not the same thing as poverty, although it can feel an awful lot like it….Inequality makes people feel poor and act poor, even when they’re not.  Inequality so mimics poverty in our minds that the United States of America, the richest and most unequal of countries, has a lot of features that better resemble a developing nation than a superpower.”

The health and longevity problems that are associated with poverty have been well documented.  What Payne is saying is that the same problems arise for people who are not objectively poor, but who merely feel poor because they suffer a status deficit.  Inequality then includes not only those who are of low income and are objectively poor, but those who have sufficient income to not be considered poor yet feel poor.

“We have to take subjective perceptions of status seriously, because they reveal so much about people’s fates.  If you place yourself on a lower rung, then you are more likely in the coming years to suffer from depression, anxiety, and chronic pain.  The lower the rung you select, the more probable it is that you will make bad decisions and underperform at work.  The lower the rung you select, the more likely you are to believe in the supernatural and in conspiracy theories.  The lower the rung you select, the more prone you are to weight issues, diabetes, and heart problems.  The lower the rung you select, the fewer years you have left to live.”

“Let me be clear that I am not simply asserting that, if you are poor, then all of these things are more likely to happen to you.  I am stating, rather, that these things are more likely to happen to you if you feel poor, regardless of your actual income.”

In previous articles we discussed Payne’s conclusions on how inequality affects health and longevity and how it increases tendencies to believe in conspiracy theories and to be religious.  Here, the subject will be Payne’s observation that inequality and political polarization appear to be related.

Payne presents some rather compelling indications that the nation’s politics have become more polarized over the years and that inequality has something to do with it.  There are numerous studies that have been made of the degree to which members of one party are likely to vote with members of the other party on the various policy issues that arise.  All such investigations arrive at the same conclusion: bipartisan voting has become very rare.  A plot of one measure of this polarization against the Gini index (a measure of income inequality) for the United States provides an impressive correlation.



Payne also claims that this polarization consists of not only disagreement on policy issues, but it is also characterized by distrust and a lack of respect between the parties.  To support this contention he describes the results of PEW polls taken over past decades.

“Polls from the Pew Research Center have revealed that the percentage of ordinary Americans who have a ‘very unfavorable’ opinion of the opposing political party has steadily grown over the last three decades as inequality has increased.  In 2014, about a third of respondents thought members of the opposite party were not just mistaken, but were a threat to the nation’s well-being.  A third of conservatives and a quarter of liberals said that they would be upset if a family member married someone of the wrong party.  These trends are dangerous, because when opponents become enemies, people can justify almost anything in responding to them.”

But correlation does not prove causation.  We must evaluate Payne’s reasoning in concluding inequality as a causative factor.

He tallies a number of the ways in which liberals and conservatives differ in thought processes and worldviews.  Of particular relevance are the differences in the way the two types view inequality within society.  In short, conservatives tend to view inequality as a necessary consequence of unwise choices made by individuals; liberals tend to see inequality as an inevitable consequence of a socioeconomic system with defects that should be corrected.

“The….fundamental distinction between conservatives and liberals is their willingness to accept inequality.  Again, most conservatives do not want inequality for its own sake.  Instead, they view it as an outcome of an emphasis on individual rights, abilities, and responsibilities.  When individuals outcompete others, the result is always some degree of inequality.”

“Liberals….see individual merit as just one factor among many that determines success or failure in a competitive market.  They tend to consider the economic system as a whole rather than just the individual players within it, which means taking into account such factors as monopolies, old-boy networks, institutional racism and sexism, and cycles of advantage and disadvantage that shape people’s outcomes for reasons that have nothing to do with individual virtues.”

Liberal and conservative tendencies are not totally innate and immutable characteristics.  Most people can and do change their outlooks as conditions change.  In particular, threats to social order seem especially powerful in moving people to the right politically.

“In study after study, subjects who see the world as a threatening and dangerous place tend to be more politically conservative.  Those who see the world as safe, and are motivated by exploring and trying new experiences, tend to support more liberal views.”

Payne resorts to additional psychological studies to arise at a connection between increasing inequality and political polarization.  He begins with this observation.

“The fact is that the higher a person’s income is, the more likely he is to vote Republican.  The richest third of the population votes more Republican than the middle third, who vote more Republican than the bottom third.”

This suggests that wealth and the status that comes with it prompts a conservative viewpoint.  Remember that one of Payne’s central tenets is that it is the subjective feeling of status that is more important than objective measures of status such as wealth.

Payne and others constructed an investment game in which participants would earn money from picking stocks in which to invest.  Information was provided on the various stocks to give the impression of real consequences from decisions made, but the game was rigged and some were told they performed much better than most while others were told they performed much worse than most.  The purpose was to create subsets of high status winners and low-status losers and evaluate how their artificially created status affected their reasoning. 

To make the game politically relevant, a redistribution function was imposed in which the winners were taxed a certain percentage in order to provide funds to the losers before moving on to a replaying of the game.  Participants were also allowed to propose changes to the way the game would be played in future rounds, including modifications in the rules for how voting on changes would be carried out.  To make the game even more politically relevant, players were provided the opinions of others on how the rules should be modified.

An interesting—and troubling—effect was noted.

“As expected, subjects judged the other player to be more incompetent, more biased, and less rational when he disagreed with the subject than when he agreed.  When we looked closer at the data, though, we noticed an interesting detail: The perception of the other player as biased and irrational was driven entirely by the group who were told that they did better than their peers.  Something about feeling superior in profits made people feel superior to other players about their opinions also.”

As Payne explains, a person feeling high in status will believe themselves to be in command of the facts and view lower status people with a bit of disdain.

“If I see the world as it is and you disagree with me, then I have only a few possible interpretations of your behavior: You might be incompetent, you might be irrational, or you might be evil.”

Payne presents this summary of his results and the conclusion that he draws.

“The subjects who thought their earnings were inferior wanted to increase redistribution….But they wanted everyone’s vote to count equally, regardless of whether the other player agreed or disagreed with them.  The subjects who thought they were superior wanted to reduce redistribution, and they also voted to reject the votes of those who disagreed with them.  The more they saw the other player as incompetent and irrational, the less they wanted his vote to count.”

“This research was the first to show that feeling superior in status magnifies our feeling that we see reality as it is while our opponents are deluded.  It supports the idea that as the top and the bottom of the social ladder drift farther apart, our politics will become more divisive.  That is exactly what has happened over the past several decades.”

Payne provided some interesting insights with his study, but basing his conclusion on it seems a leap too far.  His game produced artificial feelings of status.  In politics, there are real feelings of status at play, and our polarized situation has roughly a 50-50 split between two parties where each views the other as incompetent, irrational, or evil.  An argument based on economic inequality alone would have a difficult time arriving at equal populations.

 Recall that Payne claimed that the standard indicators of status such as money, educational attainment, and job status, consisted of only about 20 percent of what determines a person’s view of his place in the hierarchy.  Consequently, some other driver of status must be activated in order to get the polarization we see.

Payne provides the data needed to provide a more compelling explanation for why inequality could be responsible for our polarized politics.  He had the disadvantage of writing his book before the Trump election results were available and perhaps assumed a primary effect was only secondary in importance.  Payne included a chapter on racial bias and inequality in which he concluded that race was an important political factor and racial bias was exacerbated by economic inequality.  He also presented this result based on numerous studies: while signs of explicit bias have retreated in recent years, implicit racial bias remains buried deep within most of our psyches.

“Having reflected on what a fundamentally good person you are, you will conclude that implicit bias is other people’s problem.  Although we would all like to believe ourselves to be members of the ‘not racist’ club, we are all steeped in a culture whose history and present is built on massive racial inequality.  Research has shown that a majority of even well-meaning people—and their children—show signs of implicit bias when tested.”

It is difficult to view Payne’s chart illustrating the rise of political polarization tracking increasing economic inequality without recognizing that another powerful change was taking place at the same time.  Starting in the 1970s, the Republican Party began a transformation from one with conservative-fiscal and moderate-social policies to one dominated by the former slave states of the South.  Those states once provided reliably Democratic voters on issues that didn’t affect white racial dominance, but they became disenchanted with that party when it strongly supported civil rights for blacks.  Both Nixon and Reagan sent out messages to unhappy segregationists letting them know that they would be welcome in the Republican Party.  And so they came and drove away most moderates.

Another significant event was the election of Barack Obama in 2008.  It was no accident that Republicans took polarization to new levels when he took office.  And it was no coincidence that the Tea Party arose from the Republican ranks at about the same time.  Nor was it coincidental that hate groups and armed militias—training for the day when they would have to overthrow the government—formed in unprecedented numbers across the nation.

The Tea Party seems to informally include the core of the Republican voters.  They are neither rich nor poor, but mainly middle class.  They do not hate the rich elite; they admire them and wish they could emulate them. They divide the world into themselves, the “makers,” and those demanding assistance, the “takers.”  The explanation for Payne’s curve likely resides not in income inequality directly, but how diminished economic prospects for the middle class threatened their status as privileged whites.  To see how this works we will turn to an anthropological study of the people of Louisiana.

Arlie Russell Hochschild has produced a fascinating and enlightening volume evaluating the differences between liberals and what might be generalized as Tea Party conservatives in Strangers in Their Own Land:Anger and Mourning on the American Right.  She is a sociology professor at the University of California at Berkeley who was disturbed and puzzled by the increasing political polarization within the nation.  She chose Louisiana because it appeared to be an extreme representative of the states of the South.

“In the 2012 election, in the nation as a whole, 39 percent of the white voters voted for Barack Obama.  In the South, 29 percent did.  And in Louisiana, it was 14 percent—a smaller proportion than in the south as a whole.  According to one 2011 poll, half of the Louisianans support the Tea Party.”

She set up shop in Lake Charles, Louisiana and set about meeting and talking to people.  She would come back a number of times to re-interview Louisianans over a period of about five years.  She was interested more in the why of their attitudes than the what of their political beliefs.  People are driven by their emotions.  What was the emotional core driving the Tea Party in Louisiana?

Hochschild digested what she was learning and managed to assemble a description that captures and illustrates the perspective shared by those she encountered in Louisiana.  She refers to it as a “deep story,” a concept that is a bit hard to describe, but is clear once an example is provided.

“The deep story here, that of the Tea Party, focuses on relationships between social groups within our national borders.  I constructed this deep story to represent—in metaphorical form—the hopes, fears, pride, shame, resentment, and anxiety in the lives of those I talked with.  Then I tried it out on my Tea Party friends to see if they thought it fit their experience.  They did.”

This is Hochschild’s deep story.

“You are patiently standing in a long line leading up a hill, as in a pilgrimage.  You are situated in the middle of this line, along with others who are also white, older, Christian, and predominately male, some with college degrees, some not.”

“Just over the brow of the hill is the American Dream, the goal of everyone waiting in line.  Many in the back of the line are people of color—poor, young and old, mainly without college degrees.  It’s scary to look back; there are so many behind you, and in principle you wish them well.  Still, you’ve waited a long time, worked hard, and the line is barely moving.  You deserve to move forward a little faster.  You’re patient but weary.  You focus ahead, especially on those at the very top of the hill.”

Hochschild’s Louisianans agreed that the ordering in the waiting line was appropriate.  Whites come first and then come blacks and other minorities.  It was income inequality that was slowing the line down, and it had the effect of narrowing the gap between whites and the blacks following behind them.  In fact, as the “deep story” continues, blacks and women and others were beginning to butt in line in front of them.  They suspected that someone must be providing assistance to the interlopers.  Barack Obama was, of course, the prime example of those getting ahead of them—unfairly.

“And President Obama: how did he rise so high?  The biracial son of a low-income single mother becomes president of the most powerful country of the world; you didn’t see that coming.  And if he’s there, what kind of a slouch does his rise make you feel like, you who are supposed to be so much more privileged?  Or did Obama get there fairly?  How did he get into an expensive place like Columbia University?  How did Michelle Obama get enough money to go to Princeton?  And then Harvard Law School, with a father who was a city water plant employee?  You’ve never seen anything like it, not up close.  The federal government must have given them money.  And Michelle should feel grateful for all she has but sometimes she seems mad.  She has no right to feel mad.”

Any attempt to help the poor and unfortunate places their position of privilege at risk.  They don’t want help and don’t expect anyone else to get any either.  Hochschild has sympathy and affection for many of the people she has met.  She describes them as friendly and generous.  However, most of their generosity seems to be reserved for their own communities and their social equals.  Embedded in her deep story is the notion that the poor and unfortunate should take care of themselves and not bother them as they look towards reaching their American Dream. 

“For the right today, the main theater of conflict is neither a factory floor nor an Occupy protest.  The theater of conflict—at the heart of the deep story—is the local welfare office and the mailbox where undeserved disability checks and SNAP stamps arrive.  Government checks for the listless and idle—this seems most unfair.  If unfairness in Occupy is expressed in the moral vocabulary of a ‘fair share’ of resources and a properly proportioned society, unfairness in the right’s deep story is found in the language of ‘makers’ and ‘takers.’  For the left, the flashpoint is up the class ladder (between the very top and the rest); for the right it is down between the middle class and the poor.  For the left, the flashpoint is centered in the private sector; for the right, in the public sector.”

So income inequality produces social conflict which gets reproduced in our political life, but the effect of inequality is not always what one would expect.  Whereas people on the left see conflict between a tiny wealthy elite and the rest of the nation, the right admires the elite and wishes they could join them.  For the right—in today’s Republican Party— the conflict is between the white middle class and the poor.

Hochschild’s story was developed in the South, but the emotions and resentments she discovered there are not limited geographically.  As Payne pointed out, racial bias was public policy in the United States for centuries.  That cultural history is not overcome in a moment.  We are only about two generations from the point when open discrimination became illegal.

Donald Trump was elected because he was able to recognize the resentments and fears of middle class whites and convince them that they were not forgotten; rather, he convinced them he would now be their champion.


The interested reader might find the following articles informative:








Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Inequality, Conspiracy Theories, and Religious Belief

Keith Payne is a professor of psychology at the University of North Carolina whose specialty is the psychology of inequality and discrimination.  He has produced an interesting and enlightening book titled The Broken Ladder: How Inequality Affects the Way We Think, Live, and Die.

Humans are animals evolved from species that form hierarchical ladders where there were alpha apes and status ranks for everyone else.  With status came privilege.  It is likely that early human groups spent much of their time with the same status concerns as our ape ancestors.  While humans have evolved their own unique properties over time, the tendency for human groups to form a hierarchy is still present.  All human assemblies tend to arrive at a leader and various levels of followers.  While precise hierarchical levels tend to exist mainly in military organizations, all members of the assembly will be conscious of their status and concerned that they are treated fairly given their status.

Payne uses the symbol of a ladder on which people project their assumed positions to illustrate inequality and its consequences in human organizations.  He further concludes from psychological studies and from anthropological arguments that humans are wired to continuously monitor their environment for signs of status loss or status gain.  This activity is innate and usually takes place subconsciously.

“….no one ever mentions something that we know to be true, both from scientific studies and from simply being human: ‘I crave status’.”

When asked to assess their status by placing themselves on the rungs of a ladder, it becomes clear that people view their status in ways that are only slightly related to the presumed status markers of income, education and type of job.  Rather, presumed status seems to depend on how we compare ourselves to those we choose as peers.

“It is true that, on average, people with higher incomes, more education, and more prestigious jobs do rate themselves higher on the ladder.  But the effect is relatively small.  In a sample of, say, a thousand people, some will rate themselves at the top, others will rate themselves at the bottom, and many will be in between.  But only about 20 percent of their self-evaluation is based on income, education, and job status.”

Poor persons can feel comfortable with their status if their peers, to whom they compare themselves, are in similar situations.  On the other hand, a mere millionaire who lives in a world of multimillionaires can experience the stress normally associated with poverty.  That is an important concept to grasp.

“….inequality is not the same thing as poverty, although it can feel an awful lot like it….Inequality makes people feel poor and act poor, even when they’re not.  Inequality so mimics poverty in our minds that the United States of America, the richest and most unequal of countries, has a lot of features that better resemble a developing nation than a superpower.”

The health and longevity problems that are associated with poverty have been well documented.  What Payne is saying is that the same problems arise for people who are not objectively poor, but who merely feel poor because they suffer a status deficit.  Inequality then includes not only those who are of low income and are objectively poor, but those who have sufficient income to not be considered poor yet feel poor.

“We have to take subjective perceptions of status seriously, because they reveal so much about people’s fates.  If you place yourself on a lower rung, then you are more likely in the coming years to suffer from depression, anxiety, and chronic pain.  The lower the rung you select, the more probable it is that you will make bad decisions and underperform at work.  The lower the rung you select, the more likely you are to believe in the supernatural and in conspiracy theories.  The lower the rung you select, the more prone you are to weight issues, diabetes, and heart problems.  The lower the rung you select, the fewer years you have left to live.”

“Let me be clear that I am not simply asserting that, if you are poor, then all of these things are more likely to happen to you.  I am stating, rather, that these things are more likely to happen to you if you feel poor, regardless of your actual income.”

In an earlier article we discussed the connection between inequality and health, longevity, and the impulse to make unwise decisions.  Here the focus will be on Payne’s claim that feeling poor or unequal will tend to make you more likely to “believe in the supernatural and in conspiracy theories.”

The various studies that psychologists perform to try and understand why humans do the things they do have firmly supported the conclusion that our brains come wired in such a way that we have a need to believe that the world is an orderly place where things that happen have explanations.  This need is strong enough that we will, at times, be moved to invent explanations where none exist.  The psychologists also tell us that this need becomes stronger at times when we feel most powerless.  The collateral effects of being poor and the similar effects of feeling poor that inequality creates then feed this need to have explanations and result in a tendency to believe in conspiracy theories and the supernatural.

“This assumption that the world is orderly and predictable is a kind of mental bedrock that forms the foundation for all of our perception, thinking, and believing.  We are so good at generating regular patterns that it can at times interfere with our ability to recognize that no pattern exists at all.”

“We are especially likely to manufacture meaningful patterns when we feel powerless.  The predictability, and therefore controllability, of patterns provides a bit of solace from the lack of control.”

Payne tells us that about 50 percent of the population will believe in various conspiracy theories at any given time.  Which theories are prevalent will depend on the circumstances of the moment, but they will have a common theme: a person or a group with power is in control and is causing things to happen.

“People who feel powerless tend to believe in conspiracies carried out by the powerful.”

“At bottom, conspiracy theories are about two things: power and distrust.  You can see the former at work in who believes which theories about whom.  The best predictor of which conspiracy theories people believe at any given time is which political party is in power.”

Distrust, particularly of government, drives a need for a more satisfying explanation of what is going on than is officially provided—and confirmation that someone is in charge of events.

“Distrust—not facts or logic—made even contradictory theories seem more plausible than the official account.  To believe in a conspiracy, you trade a bit of your belief that the world is good, fair, and just in exchange for the conviction that at least someone—anyone—has everything under control.”

This need to see a believable pattern in events has ramifications not only with respect to the judgment of physical facts, but also with respect to moral interpretations as well.  Payne recounts a famous experiment in which a young woman was attached to wires and subjected to a learning and memory test.  Each time she made a mistake she reacted as if in pain.  Observers were told that she was being given an electric shock each time she made a mistake.  The observers did not know that the shocks were staged and not real.  The girl made many mistakes and the lesson went on for a long time.  One might expect this situation to generate sympathy for the girl, but, as the experimenters expected, the opposite happened.

“This poor subject was suffering for the sake of a silly study, and the observers had every reason to feel sympathetic toward the poor victim.  And yet, they deplored her….[they] called her unlikeable and immature,  They said it would be hard to admire or respect someone like her and they would not like to get to know her.”

“In order to maintain the certitude that the world was fair, subjects manufactured flaws in the woman’s character.  Just as your visual system fills in the scene with assumptions to render the world sensible, so does your moral reasoning.  Good things happen to good people, and bad things happen to bad people.  Something bad is happening to this woman.  Therefore, she must be a bad person.  All is well.”

Consider the distaste the Republican Party has for welfare policies.  In particular, focus on the Tea Party’s division of the world into makers and takers.  The good people of the world, the makers, deserve to have good things happen to them.  The people in need of welfare, the takers, must be bad people who deserve their misfortune.  All is well.

Given the human need to perceive a credible pattern in events and to believe that someone—anyone—is in charge of affairs, is it any wonder that religious beliefs would be popular in certain circumstances and at certain times?

“Monotheistic religions provide believers with the reassurance that a benevolent, all-knowing, and all-powerful being is controlling the universe.  This type of belief system offers many benefits.  Unlike conspiracy theories, which provide controllability but at the expense of benevolence, religious belief is the ultimate win-win.”

“If feeling powerless and insecure makes people more prone to see patterns and to give credence to conspiracy theories, it stands to reason that it would also intensify religious faith.  Studies by Aaron Kay have confirmed that when individuals are made to feel helpless or when the world is portrayed as chaotic and unpredictable, they hold stronger convictions in a powerful God who controls the universe.”

Given these claims, one would expect religion to flourish where poverty and inequality are high and to retreat where they are low.  That is exactly what is observed.

“….psychologists Kurt Gray and Daniel Wegner looked at the U.S. states where people had more or fewer hardships in their lives by compiling statistics on infant mortality, cancer deaths, infectious disease, violent crime, and environmental hazards.  They combined these maladies into a single ‘suffering index’ and plotted it against the proportion of people in each state who stated in polls that they strongly believed in God.”



“….the researchers found that anguish does not pose a theological problem for most believers.  Quite the opposite.  Like the biblical Job, the more people suffered, the more they believed in God.”

Payne also provides another demonstration of the dual nature of inequality and poverty and the universal need for access to a source of “answers.”  The previous results suggest that as nations become wealthier the degree of “suffering” and powerlessness will diminish and people will have less need for religion.  The following chart plots a measure of religiosity versus national per capita GDP (income).



This data does support the notion that increased wealth will lead to decreased need for religion.  Note, however, that there are two distinct outliers from the general trend: China and the United States.  China has long discouraged organized religions so its low ranking might not be surprising.  Payne refers to the United States as the most unequal of the wealthier nations.  Would inequality possess an equivalence to low wealth in terms of social dynamics?

“After accounting for the difference between communist and noncommunist countries, China was no longer an outlier.  Even more important, though, was the role of income inequality.  Highly unequal countries were much more religious than more equal ones.  The effects of inequality were huge, and about as large as the effects of actual income.  Once the data were plotted to show the relationship between religion and income inequality (rather than average income), the United States was no longer an outlier but fell right along the line where it would be expected to be, high in both inequality and religiosity.  Poverty and inequality together can explain the bulk of the differences across countries in religiosity.”

To the scientifically minded who like to argue  with religious believers about logical or historical inconsistencies within their belief systems, this scientific data should be telling them that they are wasting their time.  The data suggests that people are attracted to religion not by dogma, but by the alleviation of the social needs it provides.

Payne provides convincing arguments that poverty and inequality are related in the way they affect human social responses.  Both are bad. 


The interested reader might find the following article informative:




Thursday, July 27, 2017

Inequality, Poverty, and Social Dysfunction

Keith Payne is a professor of psychology at the University of North Carolina whose specialty is the psychology of inequality and discrimination.  He has produced an interesting and enlightening book titled The Broken Ladder: How Inequality Affects the Way We Think, Live, and Die.

It is well-known that within groups of members of a species there is a strong tendency to form a hierarchy.  This is seen in animal species where the hierarchy is clearly established and firm rules are enforced.  Position on this hierarchical ladder has important consequences.  The higher the position of a female the more likely she will get to mate with a powerful male.  Conversely, a male low on the ladder may have little or no opportunity to mate with any female.  Access to food might also be determined by position within this hierarchical ladder.  Consequently, animals will be adept at weighing their positions relative to those of others, and will be continually concerning themselves with issues of fairness in order to make sure they are treated appropriately.

Humans are animals evolved from species that do form hierarchical ladders, and it is likely that early human groups spent much of their time with the same status worries as our ape ancestors.  While humans have evolved their own unique properties over time, the tendency for human groups to form a hierarchy is still present.  All human assemblies tend to arrive at a leader or a leadership group and a bunch of followers.  While precise hierarchical levels tend to exist mainly in military organizations, all members of the assembly will be conscious of their status and concerned that they are treated fairly given their status.

Payne uses the symbol of a ladder on which people project their assumed positions to illustrate inequality and its consequences in human organizations.  He further concludes from psychological studies and from anthropological arguments that humans are wired to continuously monitor their environment for signs of status loss or status gain.  This activity is innate and usually takes place subconsciously.

“….no one ever mentions something that we know to be true, both from scientific studies and from simply being human: ‘I crave status’.”

“Others might not acknowledge that, but we can certainly see it in their behavior.  We can observe it in the clothes they buy, in the houses they choose to live in, and the gifts they give.  Above all we can perceive it in the constantly shifting standards for what counts as ‘enough.’  If you have ever received a raise, only to adapt to the new level of income in a few months and again begin to feel as though you were still living paycheck to paycheck as before, then you can experience it yourself.  As your accomplishments rise, so do your comparison standards.  Unlike the rigid column of numbers that make up a bank ledger, status is always a moving target, because it is defined by ongoing comparisons to others.”

When asked to assess their status by placing themselves on the rungs of a ladder, it becomes clear that people view their status in ways that are only slightly related to the presumed status markers of income, education and type of job.  Rather, presumed status seems to depend on how we compare ourselves to those we choose as peers.

“It is true that, on average, people with higher incomes, more education, and more prestigious jobs do rate themselves higher on the ladder.  But the effect is relatively small.  In a sample of, say, a thousand people, some will rate themselves at the top, others will rate themselves at the bottom, and many will be in between.  But only about 20 percent of their self-evaluation is based on income, education, and job status.”

“This surprisingly small relationship between traditional markers of status and how it is perceived subjectively means that there are a lot of people who are by objective standards affluent and yet rate themselves on the lower rungs.  Similarly, many people who are objectively poor rate themselves high up the ladder.”

Poor persons can feel comfortable with their status if their peers, to whom they compare themselves, are in similar situations.  On the other hand, a mere millionaire who lives in a world of multimillionaires can experience the stress normally associated with poverty.  That is an important concept to grasp.

“….inequality is not the same thing as poverty, although it can feel an awful lot like it….Inequality makes people feel poor and act poor, even when they’re not.  Inequality so mimics poverty in our minds that the United States of America, the richest and most unequal of countries, has a lot of features that better resemble a developing nation than a superpower.”

The health and longevity problems that are associated with poverty have been well documented.  What Payne is saying is that the same problems arise for people who are not objectively poor, but who merely feel poor because they suffer a status deficit.

“We have to take subjective perceptions of status seriously, because they reveal so much about people’s fates.  If you place yourself on a lower rung, then you are more likely in the coming years to suffer from depression, anxiety, and chronic pain.  The lower the rung you select, the more probable it is that you will make bad decisions and underperform at work.  The lower the rung you select, the more likely you are to believe in the supernatural and in conspiracy theories.  The lower the rung you select, the more prone you are to weight issues, diabetes, and heart problems.  The lower the rung you select, the fewer years you have left to live.”

“Let me be clear that I am not simply asserting that, if you are poor, then all of these things are more likely to happen to you.  I am stating, rather, that these things are more likely to happen to you if you feel poor, regardless of your actual income.”

That is a rather startling claim.  Most of Payne’s book is concerned with demonstrating that it is accurate.  We will cover only some of the data he uses to make his point.

In order to convince us that we are status conscious animals who respond to status threatening situations, Payne reminds us of what flying on commercial airliners is like.

“Airplanes are microcosms of our world and the everyday anxieties we encounter there.  We are thrown together with hundreds of strangers, forced into a level of intimacy ordinarily reserved for loved ones or professional colleagues.  We are crammed into a narrow metal tube, triggering our evolved fear of enclosed spaces.”

“But even more than the anxieties they provoke, there is another aspect of airplanes that makes them a notable microcosm of life.  Airplanes are the physical embodiment of a status hierarchy.  They are a social ladder made of aluminum and upholstery in which the rungs are represented by rows, by boarding groups, and by seating classes.”

The most glaring hierarchical aspect of flying is the presence of a first class section with big comfortable seats, free alcohol, and perhaps even warm food.  To emphasize the status differences, coach passengers must wait for first class to board and get comfortable.  They then must pass through the first-class section on the way to their cramped and crowded coach seats, taking in the obvious differences in accommodations.  A pair of psychologists, Katherine DeCelles and Michael Norton, analyzed data from millions of flights to see what factors might have played a role in triggering incidents of air rage where a passenger becomes unruly.

“As they discovered, the odds of an air rage incident were almost four times higher in the coach section of a plane with a first-class cabin than in a plane that did not have one.  Other factors mattered too, like flight delays.  But the presence of a first-class section raised the chances of a disturbance by the same amount as a nine-and-a-half-hour delay.”

“But about fifteen percent of flights board in the middle or at the back of the plane, which spares the coach passengers this gauntlet.  As predicted, air rage was about twice as likely on flights that boarded at the front….”

Perhaps it would be interesting to monitor your emotions the next time you trudge to your coach row through a first-class section where they may already be enjoying the first of their complimentary cocktails.  And if you are fortunate to be sitting in a first-class seat when the coach rabble pass through, how do you respond?  Do you make eye contact?  Do you smile?  Or do you look away content in the sensation that you have more important things to be concerned with than these people.

Among other effects of poverty is a state of elevated stress.  Excessive time spent in a state of stress is not something the human body was designed to withstand.  It can lead to deleterious health outcomes.  If Payne is correct, then people organized into well-defined status groups should show different levels of health outcomes.  It is well-known that poverty plays a role and mortality rates are higher among the poor.  Payne found an example of a well-defined status hierarchy where income differences persisted but where poverty was eliminated as an issue.

“We can see this pattern even more clearly in data from a massive study of more than ten thousand British Civil Service employees that has been in progress since the 1960s.  Her Majesty’s Civil Service has an exquisitely detailed hierarchy with dozens of clearly defined job grades from cabinet secretaries who report directly to the prime minister all the way down to entry-level clerical jobs.  Physician Michael Marmot has found that each rung down the ladder is associated with a shorter life span.”



“The pattern is strikingly linear, so that even the difference between the highest-status government officials and those just one rung below was linked to increased mortality.”

“….the subjects in this study all have decent government jobs and the salaries, health insurance, pensions, and other benefits that are associated with them.  If you thought that elevated mortality rates were only a function of the desperately poor being unable to meet their basic needs, this study would disprove that….”


Payne has claimed that subjective social comparisons can lead to risky behavior, a tendency to make bad decisions, and a shorter life span.  To elaborate on this point he discusses the recent findings of Ann Case and Angus Deaton who noticed that the mortality rate for some classes of whites has been increasing, in contrast to what is observed in minority populations in this country and for all citizens in other wealthy nations.

“Since the 1990s, the death rate for middle-aged white Americans has been rising.  The increase is concentrated among men and whites without a college degree.  The death rate for black Americans of the same age remains higher, but is trending slowly downward, like that of all other minority groups.”

“The wounds in this group seem to be largely self-inflicted….They are dying of cirrhosis of the liver, suicide, and a cycle of chronic pain and overdoses of opiates and painkillers.”

Payne asserts that the results can be explained by a combination of these risky behaviors and the stress associated with living in a state of “feeling poor.”

“The trend itself is striking because it speaks to the power of subjective social comparisons.  This demographic group is dying of violated expectations.  Although high school-educated whites make more money on average than similarly educated blacks, the whites expect more because of their history of privilege.  Widening income inequality and stagnant social mobility, Case and Deaton suggest, mean that this generation is likely to be the first in American history that is not more affluent than its parents.”

Humans spent most of their time on earth living in small groups struggling to exist.  There would be hierarchy in this society, but with little wealth the span of inequality would be small.  That could also mean that humans would have become sensitized to minor slights in their presumed status.  With the historical era in which agriculture allowed greater accumulations of wealth, inequality would have grown.  In our current era the gap between the wealthiest and the average person has become stupendously large.  Payne has argued that not only is inequality growth being driven by economic dynamics, but the response to growing inequality leads to destructive behaviors that actually contribute to even greater inequality.

Inequality breeds inequality?  If you weren’t worried about this issue before, perhaps now is the time to get on it.


Sunday, July 16, 2017

Drugs, Pharmacy Benefit Managers, and Perverse Incentives to Raise Prices

The United States spends more money on healthcare per capita than any other nation.  A little study leads to the conclusion that there is too much profit-taking in our system.  Who makes too much profit?  Everyone it seems.  The pricing of pharmaceutical medicines has received the most attention of late.  Just when one thinks the system of pricing can be explained by simple greed, one learns that nothing is simple in healthcare; it’s a collective system where components collaborate to ensure that profits get widely shared.

The most recent “stunning revelation” appeared in an article by Paul Barrett and Robert Langreth in Bloomberg BusinessweekThe Crazy Math Behind Drug Prices.  The presumed new villains in this case are the pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) who are hired to act as intermediaries between institutional healthcare providers and drug companies in order to negotiate lower drug prices and save the providers money.  These PBMs also have leverage over the drug companies by having control over the list of drugs that are considered “preferred medications.”  If a company’s product does not make that list, then it will lose sales revenue—perhaps a lot.  What the PBMs do is not negotiate the list price of a drug, but the discount price that a given provider will pay for the drug.  The PBMs take a percentage of the savings to the providers as their profit.  People not in one of the provider’s plans will end up paying the full list price.  The insightful reader will have already become suspicious about this system.

The authors of the article use the example of David Hernandez to illustrate some issues associated with these practices.

“David Hernandez, a 44-year-old restaurant worker and Type 1 diabetic, didn’t have insurance from 2011 through 2014 and often couldn’t afford insulin—a workhorse drug whose list price has risen more than 270 percent over the past decade. As a result of his skimping on dosages, Hernandez in 2011 suffered permanent blindness in his left eye, and three years later he experienced kidney failure. He’s since received a lifesaving kidney transplant covered by Medicare and has drug coverage under a New Jersey program for the disabled. But Hernandez’s eligibility expires next January, at which time he’ll have to pay about $300 a month out of pocket for insulin. ‘I don’t really have that kind of money,’ he says.”

“That Hernandez is struggling to deal with big price hikes for insulin, a century-old medicine that for most of its history cost $15 a month or less, speaks volumes about America’s failing battle to control drug prices.”

Legal action has been initiated in Hernandez’s name by Steven Berman claiming that the interactions between the PBMs and the drug companies are causing the price of drugs to increase rather than decrease—not just for insulin but for many other drugs as well.

“Other plaintiffs’ law firms have followed in Berman’s wake, all of them alleging conspiracies in which the dominant insulin makers—Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi—continually raise list prices to curry favor with the largest PBMs: Express Scripts Holding, CVS Health, and OptumRx, a unit of UnitedHealth Group. The four cases pending in New Jersey, which are likely to be consolidated, constitute a threat of massive damages for Big Pharma—and could topple the branded-drug pricing system used in the U.S.”

“Federal prosecutors are also investigating relationships between PBMs and large drug companies. The U.S. Attorney’s Office in Manhattan has ordered Lilly, Novo, and Sanofi to turn over documents regarding those relationships.”

The authors use the history of the drug Humalog to illustrate a pricing system that is out of control.

“When Lilly introduced its diabetes medicine Humalog in 1996, it cost $21 a vial. Today the same vial lists for $275. Patients often use two vials a month. Annual insulin sales worldwide exceed $20 billion.”

Consider the perverse set of incentives operating in the negotiation between PBMs and drug companies.  If two companies have equivalent drugs and one is cheaper than the other, the PBM can make more money from dealing with the more expensive product.  The cheaper drug company recognizes this factor and concludes that it is in its best interest to raise the price of its drug to match or even exceed that of the competitor.  This type of competition can easily lead to competitors frequently raising prices in lockstep.

The drug companies have admitted that this profit motive on the part of PBMs is a real consideration.

“Speaking at an investment conference in June 2016, Lilly’s then-CEO John Lechleiter referred to ‘the weird way the payment system can work in this country.’ He asserted that ‘higher rebates can be an incentive for a payer [PBM] to stick with essentially a higher-priced product’.”

“Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, CEO of Novo Nordisk A/S, the world’s biggest maker of insulin drugs, says list prices are meant to be only the starting point for rebate negotiations with PBMs. ‘It was never the intention that individual patients should end up paying the list price,’ he says.”

The PBM can use the higher price to provide greater discounts to the healthcare providers.  Consequently, the providers may not be too much bothered by this scam, but this is far from a victimless crime.  We end up with two prices for drugs: the inflated list prices and the negotiated discount prices.  The problem that arises is that people like Hernandez end up being required to pay the artificially high list price.  People without medical coverage, the least likely to be able to pay, will face the list price.  People with a healthcare plan but with a high deductible will be required to pay the full list price until the deductible is met.  The Medicare system is not allowed to negotiate prices with drug companies so the taxpayers are getting gouged, as well as the elderly who use a lot of medications.

The drug companies make out like the bandits they are.  They make a decent profit from the discounted rates they negotiate and make an outrageous profit from the poor souls who must try to pay the list price.

Those bringing the lawsuits have a clear picture of what is going on here.

“All of the lawsuits describe the relationships between drug companies and PBMs as unlawful ‘enterprises’ operating in violation of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act.”

Who could argue with that?

The interested reader might find the following articles informative:





Thursday, July 13, 2017

Sand: The World Is Running Out of It

It seems our most important assets are often the most common things around us.  Water is an example.  It seems to be plentiful, so we do not assign a high price to it, but we use so much of it that it’s becoming in short supply in many parts of the world.  There is another common product that appears abundant to us but is also becoming difficult to find because consumption has dramatically increased.  That product goes by the generic name of aggregate.  In this context, the term refers to components that are used as strengtheners in composite materials such as cement and asphalt.  Sand and gravel are the components of most use for construction applications.  So how could we be running out of sand when it appears to be available in enormous quantities?  Like water, most of it is in a form that cannot be used effectively.

In March 2014, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) felt compelled to issue a warning to an unsuspecting world in a document titled Sand, rarer than one thinks

“Sand and gravel represent the highest volume of raw material used on earth after water. Their use greatly exceeds natural renewal rates. Moreover, the amount being mined is increasing exponentially, mainly as a result of rapid economic growth in Asia.”

The report laments the fact that while aggregate use is widespread, little data is available on quantities being consumed.  Cement is one item for which data is available and it is one of the most common uses.

“One way to estimate the global use of aggregates indirectly is through the production of cement for concrete (concrete is made with cement, water, sand and gravel). The production of cement is reported by 150 countries and reached 3.7 billion tonnes in 2012….For each tonne of cement, the building industry needs about six to seven times more tonnes of sand and gravel….Thus, the world’s use of aggregates for concrete can be estimated at 25.9 billion to 29.6 billion tonnes a year for 2012 alone. This represents enough concrete to build a wall 27 metres high by 27 metres wide around the equator.”

Sand is defined by its particle size not by its material type.  The surface character of a grain of sand determines whether or not it would be useful as a construction material.  Sand moved about in water tends to retain multiple sharp edges and is valuable; sand moved by air tends to be smooth and rounded and of no value. 

“Sand was until recently extracted in land quarries and riverbeds; however, a shift to marine and coastal aggregates mining has occurred due to the decline of inland resources. River and marine aggregates remain the main sources for building and land reclamation. For concrete, in-stream gravel requires less processing and produces high-quality material….while marine aggregate needs to be thoroughly washed to remove salt. If the sodium is not removed from marine aggregate, a structure built with it might collapse after few decades due to corrosion of its metal structures….Most sand from deserts cannot be used for concrete and land reclaiming, as the wind erosion process forms round grains that do not bind well.”

Sand was once readily available from land-based quarries, but so much of it was used to create buildings that sites for additional quarries were either covered up by structures or the residents of the nearby structures refused to allow a messy quarry to exist in their neighborhood.  Water-based sand became the target, a move that generated availability and environmental issues.

“Negative effects on the environment are unequivocal and are occurring around the world. The problem is now so serious that the existence of river ecosystems is threatened in a number of locations….Damage is more severe in small river catchments. The same applies to threats to benthic [ocean floor] ecosystems from marine extraction.”

David Owen took this concern over the sand supply and generated an interesting tale for The New Yorker.  It was titled The End of Sand in the paper version, and The World Is Running Out of Sand online.  He provides some background information.

“Aggregate is the main constituent of concrete (eighty per cent) and asphalt (ninety-four per cent), and it’s also the primary base material that concrete and asphalt are placed on during the building of roads, buildings, parking lots, runways, and many other structures. A report published in 2004 by the American Geological Institute said that a typical American house requires more than a hundred tons of sand, gravel, and crushed stone for the foundation, basement, garage, and driveway, and more than two hundred tons if you include its share of the street that runs in front of it. A mile-long section of a single lane of an American interstate highway requires thirty-eight thousand tons.”

The US has certainly used its share of this commodity, but consumption now is driven by rapid development in Asia.  China is building roads and structures at a phenomenal rate; India will soon have a greater population than China and will wish to undergo its own phase of rapid building creating ever more demand.

“Pascal Peduzzi, a Swiss scientist and the director of one of the U.N.’s environmental groups, told the BBC last May that China’s swift development had consumed more sand in the previous four years than the United States used in the past century. In India, commercially useful sand is now so scarce that markets for it are dominated by ‘sand mafias’—criminal enterprises that sell material taken illegally from rivers and other sources, sometimes killing to safeguard their deposits.”

Meanwhile, the US has moved on to using sand to address another problem, one that will only grow and drive even greater consumption over time.

“In the United States, the fastest-growing uses include the fortification of shorelines eroded by rising sea levels and more and more powerful ocean storms—efforts that, like many attempts to address environmental challenges, create environmental challenges of their own.”

Owen has travelled the world in order to provide us with some interesting tales of sand usage.  He begins his article by describing the rigorous specifications for the sand required for those beach volleyball competitions that have become so popular.

“Ordinary beach sand tends to be too firm for volleyball: when players dive into it, they break fingers, tear hamstrings, and suffer other impact injuries.”

It has been necessary to develop very specific requirements for the sand used in volleyball competitions.  Owen discusses the issue with Todd Knapton a sand expert who helped develop the specifications.

“The specifications govern the shape, size, and hardness of the sand grains, and they disallow silt, clay, dirt, and other fine particles, which not only stick to perspiring players but also fill voids between larger grains, making the playing surface firmer. The result is sand that drains so well that building castles with it would be impossible.”

“Beach-volleyball promoters all over the world have to submit one-kilogram samples to Knapton for approval, and his office now contains hundreds of specimens. (He also vets beach-soccer sand for FIFA.)”

Knapton and colleagues also create courts for events and must search for the appropriate kind of sand—a task that can be difficult.

“The company’s biggest recent challenge was the first European Games, which were held in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2015. Baku has beaches—it’s on a peninsula on the western shore of the Caspian Sea—but the sand is barely suitable for sunbathing, much less for volleyball. Knapton’s crew searched the region and found a large deposit with the ideal mixture of particle sizes, in a family-owned mine in the Nur Mountains, in southern Turkey, eight hundred miles to the west.”

“The mine is within shelling distance of the Syrian border. Knapton had planned to transport the sand across central Syria, through Iraq, around Armenia, and into Azerbaijan from the northwest, in two convoys of more than two hundred and fifty trucks each. But geopolitics intervened….Instead, Knapton and his crew bagged the sand in one-and-a-half-ton fabric totes, trucked it west to Iskenderun, and craned it onto ships. “We did five vessels, five separate trips,” Knapton said. “The route went across the Mediterranean, up the Aegean, through the Bosporus, across the Black Sea, and into Sochi.” From there, they took the sand by rail through Russia and Georgia, around Armenia, and across Azerbaijan.”

Clearly it is a mistake to think of sand as merely sand.  To further emphasize that point Owen provides some interesting insights into what is involved in building things in the Middle East. 

Apparently golf courses are easy to shape in sand-rich Dubai because sand is easier to move and rearrange than a grassy field, but, surprisingly, the local sand is unacceptable for use in sand traps and imported sand must be used.

“One day, I played golf with an Australian who worked for a major real-estate developer. The course, like Dubai itself, had been built on empty desert, and I commented that creating fairways and greens in such a forbidding environment must be difficult. ‘No,’ the Australian said. ‘Deserts are easy, because you can shape the sand into anything you like.’ The difficult parts, paradoxically, are the areas that are supposed to be sand: deserts make lousy sand traps. The wind-blown grains are so rounded that golf balls sink into them, so the sand in the bunkers on Dubai’s many golf courses is imported.”

The plentiful desert sand seems to be good only for participating in sand storms.

“Unfortunately for Dubai’s builders and real-estate developers, desert sand is also unsuitable for construction and, indeed, for almost any human use. The grains don’t have enough fractured faces for concrete and asphalt, and they’re too small and round for water-filtration systems. The high-compression concrete used in Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, the world’s tallest structure, was made with sand imported from Australia. William Langer told me that other desert countries face similar shortages.”

Real estate in Dubai was so expensive that it decided to create more of it offshore.  In that case land had to be created using sand dredged up from the sea—a lot of it.

“Creating so much artificial land required enormous shipments of quarried stone, from across the Emirates, as well as hundreds of millions of tons of sand, which foreign contractors dredged from the floor of the Gulf and heaped into piles. According to a U.N. report, the dredging ‘exhausted all of the marine sand resources in Dubai,’ and also did extensive environmental damage. Seafloor dredging creates the undersea equivalent of choking sandstorms, killing organisms, destroying coral reefs and other habitats, and altering patterns of water circulation.”

Creating land to build upon by dredging of marine sand to is one aspect of a growing environmental problem.  Concerns about coastal sea incursion are generating a need for enormous amounts of sand to build protective berms.  The sand will, of course, have to be dredged from the sea.  A particularly vexing situation arises when people choose to live on fragile barrier islands.  These are islands of sand that accumulate due to the action of tides and waves offshore from the mainland coast.  Houses built on these islands might have excellent ocean views, but they are at constant risk of damage from storms and rising seawaters.

“Robert S. Young, a geology professor at Western Carolina University, in North Carolina, told me recently, ‘When people first settled this country, nobody built on the barrier islands. They were too stormy, and they weren’t good places to live.’ Today, however, many barrier islands are densely covered with houses—the biggest and the most expensive of which often have the greatest exposure to ocean storms, since they’re the ones with the best water views. The rapid growth in construction has been driven by lax land-use ordinances, below-market flood-insurance rates, the indomitability of the human spirit, and, mainly, the willingness of Congress to cover much of the cost when the inevitable occurs.  ‘The Feds have poured in money over and over,’ Young continued. ‘Folks will say to me, “Gosh, Robert, people must be crazy to rebuild their roads and homes again and again, after all the storms,” and my answer is ‘No, they’re making a perfectly rational economic decision. We’re the crazy ones, because we’re paying for it.’ ”

Congress would occasionally allocate funds for protecting homes by piling ridges of ocean sand along shorelines, but the effort always ended up being prohibitively expensive.  With the attempt to respond to Hurricane Sandy that suddenly changed.

“Congress responded to Sandy by passing the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, also known as the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental bill. It allocated a little more than forty-nine billion dollars for a long list of relief efforts, including more than five billion for the Army Corps of Engineers. Much of the Corps’s money has been spent on dredging sand from the seafloor and piling it up on shorelines between oceanfront real estate and the water.”

This fiscal response reinforces a perverse logic.

“Building houses and creating artificial dunes to protect them are mutually reinforcing interventions, because the houses turn the dunes into necessities and the dunes make the houses seem rational.”

And there are the inevitable environmental consequences.

“As in Dubai, the seafloor suffers. Offshore sand dredging has been described as “submerged, open-pit strip mining.” It directly kills organisms that live or feed on the seafloor, including sea turtles, and it stirs up clouds of fine particles, which can suffocate fish by clogging their gills.”

The pure folly of the activity becomes clear when one realizes that building the artificial barriers is a never ending process.  Owen describes one effort to protect Long Beach Island located off the New Jersey coast.

“The island is a little more than twenty miles long, and for most of that length it’s no wider than two or three residential blocks. The crew I watched was working on a beach in Harvey Cedars, a town near the island’s northern end. Two red-hulled dredging ships were anchored offshore—one in federal waters, three miles out, the other much closer. The far ship vacuumed sand from the ocean floor, fifty feet down, and when its hold was full it switched places with the near ship, which had pumped its own load into a submerged steel pipe that ran all the way to the beach. As the far ship filled, its hull slowly sank from view; as the near ship emptied, its hull slowly rose.”

“The company’s dredges operate around the clock, seven days a week, all year long; they are expensive to run and leaving them idle is uneconomical. And the job is open-ended, since the artificial dune isn’t meant to be permanent: its purpose is to neutralize big waves by allowing them to consume it. The Corps expects to rebuild the entire system, from end to end, on a four-to-six-year cycle. The dredges I was watching were scheduled to move south, to Delaware, as soon as they’d finished on Long Beach Island, and then to begin working their way up the coast again. And then again, and then again after that—until either the money has run out or the ocean has risen too high to be held back by sand.”

Welcome to the Anthropocene where humans seem determined to plunder valuable resources until they are gone.  Perhaps a hope is harbored that some new technology will come to the rescue. 

More likely, suffering on a Biblical scale will ensue.


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