Russia in Ukraine: A Dictatorship with Problems

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) describes itself as a “non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization.”  One of its missions is understanding what is happening in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and making that information available to whoever is or should be interested.  It provides daily assessments of the goings on, providing detailed maps of who controls what territory in Ukraine on a given day.  For those interested in the course of the war, this is the place to go for daily updates.  It seemed to be appropriate to pass on some of the information provided in the June 18, 2023 update since the news was especially noteworthy to those who assume a dictatorship is no way to run a country, and particularly to those who believe or hope that dictatorships ultimately destroy themselves.

“Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.”

We begin with results of Wall Street Journal (WSJ) interviews with Russian soldiers who surrendered to the Ukrainians.  It provides a sense of what it is like to be a human being in Putin’s Russia.

“WSJ amplified the statements of three unidentified Russian POWs who voluntarily surrendered to Ukrainian forces during Ukrainian counteroffensive operations near Velyka Novosilka, on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts. The POWs reported widespread fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive among Russian forces on the frontlines. The POWs indicated that the Russian military command sees Russian conscripts and penal recruits as expendable, and claimed Russian officers order injured personnel deemed unfit for service back to the front line and use “barrier forces” to prevent penal recruits in ‘Storm-Z’ units from retreating. Barrier forces are specialized units that threaten to shoot their own personnel either to prevent retreats or to force them to attack, and unverified social media footage recently circulated depicting Russian barrier troops shooting retreating Russian forces in Ukraine. The POWs also indicated that Russian forces struggle to supply and staff their units, including struggling to crew tanks and armored vehicles. The POWs expressed concern about returning to Russia in a POW exchange due to Russian laws prohibiting voluntary surrender to the enemy.”

Putin seems to have encouraged people to set up private armies to support his initiatives.  The most famous and presumably the largest is the Wagner Group of Yevgeny Prigozhin.  Prigozhin has claimed that his men were responsible for the taking of Bakhmut and has bellowed loudly and frequently that the Russian Army leaders in the Ministry of Defense (MoD) are a worthless disgrace to his beloved country.  He is apparently trying to create greater influence for himself by trashing everyone in power but Putin.  The MoD responded by demanding all these private armies to institute contractual arrangements with the MoD in order to gain supplies and equipment.  Prigozhin has stated that he will refuse to obey.  Here are a few comments from this day’s assessment of the state of affairs.

“Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to compete with the Russian MoD and portray Wagner as more disciplined than regular Russian forces. Prigozhin claimed that 32,000 Russian convicts completed service with Wagner and returned to Russia.   Prigozhin claimed that these recruits have a 0.25 percent recidivism rate and that this rate is 80 percent lower than the recidivism rate among Russian prisoners in total. The Russian MoD notably blocked Wagner’s penal colony recruitment and began its own penal recruitment efforts in winter 2023.   Russian President Vladimir Putin similarly claimed on June 13 that Russian convict recruits, likely referring to those recruited by the MoD, have a recidivism rate of 0.4 percent as compared to the regular recidivism rate of 40 percent, and Prigozhin is likely altering and amplifying this claimed statistic.  Prigozhin suggested on June 17 that Russian MoD will prevent volunteers from ever completing their military contracts after the Russian military command assumes official control over irregular formations and is likely attempting to promote Wagner forces against the backdrop of the Russian MoD’s formalization efforts.” 

One of the more interesting sources for IWS are Russian bloggers who report on military activities.  Some are embedded with the troops in combat zones, and a few can be considered reliable sources.  They are referred to as “milbloggers.”

“Some Russian ultranationalist figures are concerned that the Russian MoD’s efforts to formalize volunteer formations will trigger command changes and degrade combat effectiveness. Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian MoD previously replaced the experienced commanders of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) people’s militias with ineffective and inexperienced commanders.  The milbloggers claimed that the timing of the MoD’s recent order formalizing volunteer units during a Ukrainian counteroffensive is worrisome, and that the MoD may worsen these volunteer formations in the same manner the MoD worsened the DNR and LNR militias.”

The inability of Russia to provide logistical support to its troops has become almost laughable.  Here is a comment related to that topic.

“Some Russian commanders are reportedly withholding nongovernmental military aid from frontline units. Russian milbloggers amplified footage on June 18 showing bullet holes in vehicles that Russian military personnel purchased with their own money for military purposes.[45] The milbloggers claimed that the commander of the Russian 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) - allegedly “Colonel Kutaev” - deliberately shot the vehicles likely because he did not want to Russian servicemen to accept military supplies or equipment outside of official MoD provisions. The milbloggers noted that there are Russian commanders who refuse to leverage support from nongovernmental organizations dedicated to helping supply Russian military units with equipment, drones, and vehicles.”

Putin has long claimed that there is no Ukraine, the region is just a portion of Russia, and the natives are merely more Russians.  He seems willing to show this principle by treating them like regular Russians.  If it serves the Leader’s purpose, they will be left to die. 

“Russian occupation officials are continuing to prioritize medical treatment for Russian military personnel in occupied Mariupol, reportedly significantly increasing the civilian mortality rate in the city. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on June 18 that the civilian mortality rate in Mariupol from ‘natural’ causes significantly intensified to a peak of 400 deaths per week – 2.6 times higher than Ukraine’s national mortality rate during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Mariupol has no functional medical system because all medical facilities are treating Russian military personnel. Russian forces have consistently used civilian medical infrastructure in occupied Ukraine for their own needs, and are struggling to compensate for the resulting shortage in available healthcare personnel and beds.”

This is not the first time Russia tried to destroy Ukraine.  Stalin purposely starved millions of Ukrainian agricultural workers to death in the 1930s because they irritated him.  Putin seems to be repeating Stalin’s behavior.  His progress reminds one of the Karl Marx remark: “History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce.”