What Is Happening to the Earth’s Temperature?

 There was a time when we could assume that we had like a century before we had to worry about global warming.  Then it became apparent that changes were happening that were measurable on a decade scale.  Now we are wondering how much worse next year will be than this year.  Recently, the famed climate scientist, James Hansen had the audacity to point out what was obvious; the experts have consistently underestimated the rate at which climate change was occurring.  Hansen is now predicting that the world will hit the optimistic target for limiting temperature rise to plus 1.5 degrees C in the 2020s and reach 2.0 degrees C by 2050.  When the Paris Accords in 2015 established the goal of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, scientists were asked to assess the possibility.  They replied in 2018.

“If the current warming rate continues, the world would reach human-induced global warming of 1.5°C around 2040.”

Hansen seems to be correct.  Berkely Earth tracks the global temperature changes and provided these comments after tallying the September 2023 data.

“Globally, September 2023 was the warmest September — and the largest monthly anomaly of any month — since records began in 1850.”

“In addition, this September exceeded the previous record by 0.50 °C (0.90 °F), an enormous margin described by one climate scientist as ‘absolutely gobsmackingly bananas’.”

“2023 is very likely (90% chance) to average more than 1.5 °C above our 1850-1900 baseline.”

Those chances may have gone up.  This UK source points out that October temperature data were even crazier.

“Globally, the average surface air temperature in October was 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than the same month in 1850-1900, which Copernicus defines as the pre-industrial period.”

Perhaps even Hansen was too optimistic.  The Earth is a complex system and next year might find the temperature dipping a bit lower.  But we have sampled plus 1.5 degrees C and it was not pleasant.  And we will also reach 2.0 degrees C and higher, we just don’t know how soon.  Buckle up, it could be quite a ride.