China and Russia: An Intriguing Friendship

 Just prior to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia acquired from China an expression of “unlimited friendship.”  That certainly could be interpreted as China not disapproving of Russia’s invasion, but it is not necessarily an expression of support.  Both nations have explicitly expressed the intention to end the domination of the international scene by the US-led bloc of democracies.  The impression is conveyed that the two nations are pursuing a common agenda.  In the spirit of “there is no honor among thieves,” one has to wonder.

Both nations have immense ambitions.  Russia (Putin) believes itself the center of Eurasian civilization, with the expressed goal of leading a new political entity that would extend from Eastern Russia to Portugal.  China believes itself the center of all human civilization, providing it the right to be the world’s dominant political and military power.  Given these viewpoints, a naïve Russia could perceive an alliance with China as something beneficial, but China might view such an alliance as an opportunity to use an ally to help defeat a third-party enemy.  Consider this comment by Michael Pillsbury in The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower.

“The Chinese planned to use the Americans as they had used the Soviets—as tools for their own advancement, all the while pledging cooperation against a third rival power.  This is how the marathon was conducted throughout most of the cold war—China using the Soviet Union’s rivalry with America to extract Soviet aid and then, when that faltered, shifting to the Americans by offering to help against the Soviets.  In doing so, the Chinese were reflecting another ancient stratagem—‘kill with a borrowed sword’—or, in other words, attack using the strength of another.”

In Ukraine, is China assisting an ally, or using Russia to weaken itself along with the US and Europe?

Geographically, Russia is a huge country with a sparse population.  It is wealthy in natural resources and earns its income from exporting them but has few exports of developed products other than weapons.  Except for grain, natural resources came under sanctions after the invasion of Ukraine.  China came to Russia’s aid by buying energy products, but at a discount.  China is providing Russia with dual-use goods that are difficult to obtain because of the wartime sanctions.  That is helping Russia continue its war in Ukraine, but, thus far, resisted providing weaponry that might allow it to win the war.  And why would it?  A victorious Russia is an ascendent nation and competition for China.  Wouldn’t it be far better to let Russia and the US and its allies fight on until they are all weakened to the point that China’s dominance is enhanced?   China might dream of a day when Russia is so diminished that it would effectively become a vassal to China, providing it with unlimited access to all those natural resources.

Stay tuned!  There will be many episodes in this drama.