The alliances are set: the major democracies of the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea versus the major autocracies China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The war began with Russia invading Ukraine. A swift victory and the demonstration of NATO’s fecklessness would be outstanding and would give the green light to Russia’s allies to make aggressive moves in their own spheres of influence. Easy victory did not happen, but neither did defeat. Neither side has yet demonstrated the ability to defeat the other. Russia is receiving warfighting assistance from China and Iran, and probably from North Korea as well. Ukraine is receiving economic and military assistance from its allies, the alliance of major democracies. Putin continues to gush confidence about the state of affairs in Ukraine even though his army seems unable to control any additional territory. Could the autocrats have a plan B?
If NATO is an effective alliance, one not likely to collapse when threatened, it can still be enfeebled if the war in Ukraine saps its strength, both political and military. The democratic alliance has admitted that political will in its nations is fragile, and military resources are being stretched thin by donations to Ukraine. Putin could succeed by stretching out the war in hope that the alliance loses its will and allows him to win. But what if your allies no longer trust you to do what you promised? Could plan B include opening a second front to further test the endurance of the democratic alliance and to further deplete its military resources. On October 7, the Hamas group executed a massive attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. Hamas is supported by Iran who probably provided the arms necessary as well as other forms of support.
Iran has much to gain in its sphere of influence by damaging Israel and creating chaos in the Middle East. Could China be watching and waiting for an opportunity for aggressive action that would go unopposed? Is North Korea waiting for an opportune time to have another go at South Korea?
Putin has lately begun talking in ways that suggest something big is planned. Consider this statement from a CNN article.
“’The Ukrainian crisis is not a territorial conflict, I want to emphasize this,’ he said at the Valdai forum. ‘Russia is the largest country in the world, with the largest territory. We have no interests in terms of conquering any additional territories. We still have to explore and develop Siberia, Eastern Siberia and the Far East. This is not a territorial conflict or even the establishment of a regional geopolitical balance. The question is much broader and more fundamental: we are talking about the principles on which the new world order will be based’.”
Timothy Snyder has identified Vladimir Putin as a Christian fascist who believes that God is on fascism’s side. He hates the western democracies because their lax morals and their insistence on personal freedoms weaken his Russian people—a rather Hitlerian concern. The article’s author, Nathan Hodge, seems to agree.
“Putin casts that fight in existential terms, arguing this week that nothing less than a twilight struggle is underway to establish a new world order congenial to authoritarian states — and implying that Russia is in this for the long haul.”
Putin thinks he and his allies can win this war.
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