Covid Vaccination: In the US, Nothing Seems to Move the Uncertain or Unwilling

 In the beginning, some hesitancy to accept the Covid vaccinations seemed appropriate.  They were developed using novel technologies and appeared with startling speed.  The explanations of their efficacies were often confusing and a bit unsettling.  However, since their introduction, the data from actual usage across many millions of people is consistent with what was promised.  The vaccines are limiting infections and eliminating most serious illness.  One would think that as the time goes on and death and serious illness become the fate experienced almost entirely by the unvaccinated, more people would see the wisdom of vaccination.  In the United States, that is not the case.  A brief note was published in The Economist discussing this continued hesitancy: In America, even full local hospitals do not dent vaccinescepticism.  Included was this chart illustrating increasing acceptance of vaccine efficacy in several countries while that of the US remained nearly stagnant.

 The author was prompted by the tales of vaccine acceptance by the families and friends of unvaccinated deceased or seriously ill Covid sufferers to do some investigating.  She concluded that the actual number of people who were moved by these announcements and the news of filled ICU rooms was miniscule. 

“Our calculations show that full hospitals lead to only a slight increase in the number of people getting vaccinated. For every 10% decrease in available ICU beds, there were roughly 14 additional first doses administered per 100,000 people in a county the next week. For a median-sized American county with a population of 26,000, that translates to 3.5 additional first doses, or just half a dose per day.”

The reader was left with this parting conclusion.

“The remaining Americans who have not had their jabs are not just hesitant but rather hardened—committed to shunning the vaccine despite its availability, safety and efficacy. If the Delta variant, and the wards full of patients suffering from it in local hospitals, cannot change their minds, then it is hard to see what will.”

It is difficult to argue with that assessment, but it begs an answer to the question of why this phenomenon is occurring in the US but not in the other countries. 

A little further research provides some clues in a polling study performed by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF): KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: July 2021.  KFF has been polling the nation on vaccine status and intentions monthly since December 2020.  Presented here are data from July 2021.  The results are consistent with those presented in the above chart.  What is added are tallies of the intentions of the unvaccinated and the demographics of the respondents.

“The latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor finds roughly two-thirds of U.S. adults (67%) saying they have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine with an additional 3% saying they will get vaccinated as soon as they can, as of July 27th. Three in ten adults (31%) remain unvaccinated. Those who remain unvaccinated include 10% who say they want to ‘wait and see’ how the vaccines work for other people before getting vaccinated, 3% who say they will get a vaccine ‘only if required’ to do so for work, school, or other activities (down from 6% in June), and 14% who say they will ‘definitely not’ get the vaccine.” 

The bottom line is that there are about 30% of the population not yet planning on getting vaccinated.  The survey breaks the respondents into 23 different categories.  The top six categories for the already vaccinated consist of Democrats 86%, Ages 65 and older 85%, College graduates 81%, Individuals with serious health condition 74%, and Urban residents73%.  On the other end of the spectrum, we have groups claiming the highest number of those never getting vaccinated: Uninsured under age 65 26%, White evangelical Christians 23%, Ages 18-29 21%, Rural residents 21%, Republicans 20%, Ages 30-49 19%. 

These results are consistent with attitudes toward vaccination having a political tinge.  The difference between urban and rural populations is dramatic.  Rural voters and white evangelicals form the base of the Republican Party.  The role the lack of healthcare plays in vaccine avoidance is unclear, particularly for the younger population.  Are they less likely to get vaccinated because they are young and unconcerned, or does this have something to do with the young being less likely to have healthcare coverage?

The KFF study does provide some interesting data but provides little encouragement.  Throughout Trump’s presidency pundits claimed that 30% of the population were diehard Trump supporters.  That seems to be literally true.