World War III: The Gathering Storm

 A few months ago, the Russian invasion of Ukraine seemed to be moving in a dangerous direction in which nations might be choosing sides in the conflict.  The wealthy democracies were organizing support for Ukraine while autocracies were either professing neutrality or supporting Russia’s claim that the invasion was an act of self-defense.  The most troubling alliance seemed to be between Russia and China as they declared an unlimited friendship just prior to the invasion.  Both nations were determined to exercise power over their neighboring countries: Russia with military might, China with economic and political might.  The same nations supporting Ukraine were organizing for what might be called an economic war with China.  An alliance between Russia and China against a common enemy alliance would be a frightful situation.  In World War III: Alliances Are Forming; Weaponizing Food, Energy this situation was discussed in terms of a possible prelude to worldwide conflict.

Much has changed since then—and not for the better.  The United States, along with its NATO allies, have been able to provide Ukraine with superior armaments to those available to the Russian forces, and in sufficient supply to turn the tide and begin recapturing large sections of the territory lost in the initial invasion.  Russia embarrassed itself by picking a fight with a better-trained, better-led, and more-highly-motivated army.  However, Putin is not willing to endure defeat.  His only option is to play for time hoping that his enemies will lack the will to continue indefinitely.  Against Ukraine, he has mobilized a large number of new soldiers and began immediately rushing them to the front to provide poorly trained reinforcements.  Observers do not see that as a strategy likely to make much difference, but it may slow the Ukrainian advance. 

Putin’s mobilization strategy seems more like another attempt to extend the fighting through winter when he hopes his enemies will have their will broken by a long, cold, dark winter.  He is also trying to break states away from the NATO alliance and bring into the mix military assistance from his allies.  There appears to be more emphasis on destroying Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, particularly energy, than in holding occupied territory.  He attempted to create a natural gas shortage in Europe when the main pipeline from Russia was put out of commission by an explosion caused by an “unknown” terrorist nation.  He then offered Turkey the opportunity to become a hub for gas flow to Europe by building a new pipeline to its shoreline.  That seems a blatant attempt to further separate Turkey, not enthusiastic about NATO’s policy against Russia, from the other members of the alliance.  The most disturbing reason why Putin will follow a biding-time policy is the upcoming election in the United States.  He knows that Trump is an avowed admirer and wishes to rule the US in the same way he rules Russia.  There is a wing of the Republican Party that supports Trump and a move in that direction.  If the Republicans win either or both legislative branches, he knows he will be a step closer to seeing the end of support for Ukraine and the NATO alliance.

The development that most motivated the “Gathering Storm” theme was the entry of Iran into the fray by providing aid to Russia in the form of long-range weaponized drones.  The NATO countries benefited from the war by being able to judge the performance of their armaments in actual warfare without risking their own personnel.  This has been extremely useful.  The Iranians seem to wish the same opportunity.  They possess a large number of rockets and drones, enough to wage war against someone, and they are interested in seeing how they perform and if there are improvements needed.  Thus far, the drones have been effective in causing the desired damage, but countermeasures are also effective and may become even more so.

The assistance provided Russia by Iran is not yet a game-changer in Ukraine.  However, Israel, the likely target for Iran’s armaments buildup, must be watching closely.  The more effective Iran’s weapons appear in Ukraine, the more likely the Israelis must consider some sort of response.  Iran has already targeted Saudi energy infrastructure.  The Saudis would be even more vulnerable.  An Iran with a credible conventional armament threat against nations in the Middle East might be more upsetting to political stability than an Iran with a nuclear weapon.  Effectively, Putin’s war in Ukraine has spread to a highly unstable region.

In terms of potential worldwide conflict, China’s actions are critical.  Thus far, China’s support for Putin follows the initial assertion that Russia was under threat when it began the invasion.  There is no claim of direct support other than taking advantage of discounted prices for Russian oil.  The fear is that China could begin to provide direct military assistance to Russia in Ukraine, and/or take advantage of the Ukraine distraction to make an aggressive move in Asia.  If either move is made, it is not sure what would happen next, but the world would become a different place.

Meanwhile, worldwide problems that require worldwide attention will not be addressed.  While climate change grows unabated, more climate refugees will be created; increased levels and areas of conflict will create more war refugees; an already stumbling world economy will not benefit from conflicts, generating more economic refugees.

Stay tuned…

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